BetIQ Daily: 4 College Football Picks, 1 NCAAB Total, NFL Passing Props Data

BetIQ Daily: 4 College Football Picks, 1 NCAAB Total, NFL Passing Props Data (Friday 11/19)

Picks for Friday November 19 include weekend college football plays for Wisconsin-Nebraska and more, plus an NCAAB game total for today.

November 19, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Kenny Pickett will try to get Pitt to 8-2 ATS (Michael Longo/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome to BetIQ Daily, where we highlight a few sports betting picks from our premium data-driven models and analysis.

Friday, November 19 (#2)

It’s the week before most rivalry games in college football, and we’ve got some college football spread picks for your weekend, plus a college basketball play for today as a bonus.

5 Picks For Today and Saturday

1) Pittsburgh -14.5 (vs. Virginia) — NCAAF Spread Pick

Saturday 3:30 PM ET.Our Decision Tree Model gives Pitt 54.4% cover odds.Also rated as a playable pick by our Ensemble Forecast Model.Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong is questionable to play.Virginia scored three points without him vs. Notre Dame.Virginia is 2-4 SU and ATS vs. teams in our power ratings Top 50.They failed to cover the spread by double digits in each of those losses.Pitt is No. 15 in our power ratings, 7-2 SU and 7-2 ATS for the season.

2) New Mexico State +36 (at Kentucky) — NCAAF Spread Pick

Saturday 12 PM ET.1 of 4 playable NCAAF Ensemble Model picks with over 55% cover odds this weekend.Since 2011, Nov/Dec home favorites of 28+ in a non-conference matchup are 8-18 ATS.

3) Wisconsin -8 (vs. Nebraska) — NCAAF Spread Pick

Saturday 3:30 PM ET.After 1-3 start both SU and ATS, Wisconsin has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS.Freshman RB Braelon Allen had only 12 carries and 49 yards in first 4 games. In 6 games since, he’s gone for 785 yards and 8 TD’s.Wisconsin’s defense is allowing only 7.3 points per game over the last six wins.

4) UCLA/USC Under 65.5 — NCAAF Over/Under Pick 

Saturday 4 PM ET (at USC).Our highest-rated college football over/under play this week.One of 6 games with 55% or higher pick confidence from our Ensemble Forecast Model.Over last 3 seasons, NCAAF O/U picks with 55%+ confidence are 95-75-5 (57.7%).

5) West Virginia -5.5 (vs. Marquette) — NCAAB Spread Pick

Friday 5:30 PM ET (at Charleston, SC neutral court).One of our six playable college basketball spread picks on Friday.Marquette had a good week, winning at Illinois and beating Ole Miss in Charleston. Now they play with short preparation vs. a different-style West Virginia pressure defense.In first season with coach Shaka Smart, Marquette starts 3 freshmen, including at PG.So far Marquette has not rebounded well, typically an area where teams succeed vs. WV.

Full Picks Access

These are just some of the picks available to BetIQ subscribers, as our models have dozens of playable picks for both college football and college basketball this weekend.

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free 1-year subscription offer available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

Daily Musings

NFL Week 11 Passing Props

This NFL season we started posting player props picks, mostly for QB passing yards, in a weekly article. We went 6-2 last week and finished 47-36 after ten weeks.

Our passing yards projection model is largely based on:

The spread and over/under lines for the game in questionSituation-adjusted pass-run rates for the team in question

Here is the Week 11 data where available:

Quarterback	Opponent	BetIQ Projected	Passing O/U	Difference
Mayfield	DET	246.0
DETROIT QB	CLE	191.9
Allen	IND	298.6	287.5	+11.1
Wentz	BUF	243.6	222.5	+21.1
Garoppolo	JAC	242.0	250.5	-8.5
Lawrence	SF	227.8	226.5	+1.3
Tagovailoa	NYJ	261.6	249.5	+12.1
Flacco	MIA	239.4	225.5	+13.9
CAROLINA QB	WAS	228.0
Heinicke	CAR	235.3	227.5	+7.8
Jackson	CHI	250.5	248.5	+2.0
Fields	BAL	224.0	215.5	+8.5
Hurts	NO	217.8	204.5	+13.3
Siemian	PHI	235.1	218.5	+16.6
Tannehill	HOU	248.9	237.5	+11.4
Taylor	TEN	216.3	236.5	-20.2
Rodgers	MIN	266.9	270.5	-3.6
Cousins	GB	251.2	267.5	-16.3
Burrow	LV	280.1	267.5	+12.6
Carr	CIN	287.4	282.5	+4.9
ARIZONA QB	SEA	260.4
Wilson	ARI	260.3
Mahomes	DAL	327.3	311.5	+15.8
Prescott	KC	293.7	297.5	-3.8
Herbert	PIT	276.0
PITTSBURGH QB	LAC	237.9
Brady	NYG	301.8
Jones, D	TB	238.6

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