2022 College Basketball Preseason Predictions: Win Totals & Projected Conference Standings

2022 College Basketball Preseason Predictions: Win Totals & Projected Conference Standings

Our 2022 college basketball preseason predictions, including season win totals plus projected conference standings and champion odds.

November 3, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

Armando Bacot and the Tar Heels are expected to win the ACC (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Our 2022-23 college basketball preseason predictions are ready, including projected conference standings and season win totals for every team. This post lays out all the projections by conference, and provides some additional context and highlights.

Going forward, you can find our most recent season projections (updated daily) on the college basketball projected standings page on TeamRankings, and also in a big sortable table on the college basketball predictions page on BetIQ.

(Note: All data in this post is from November 1, 2022. During the remaining days of the preseason, the values shown on the site may differ very slightly from the values listed in this post. That’s because we re-run our season projection models every day, and there is always some randomness inherent in the season simulations.)

Preseason Prediction Process & Data

Our preseason projections process contains two primary steps:

Make preseason team ratings. First, we use a data-driven process to create our 2022 college basketball preseason team ratings. In short, every team is assigned a numerical predictive rating that represents how good we think that team will be this season.Run thousands of season simulations. Using our team ratings, we then simulate the outcome of every game in the upcoming 2022-23 college basketball season. Then we do it again, thousands more times, and average out all of the simulation results.

A wide variety of projections data results from the process above, and we list the biggest takeaways in the individual conference tables below, including:

Full conference standings projectionsProjected regular-season recordsConference win odds (regular season)Conference tournament win odds

But before we dive into the conference-by-conference analysis, let’s point out a few projections highlights for the 2022-23 season.

Projections Highlights: Conference Winner Odds

Here are our projected regular-season winners for the major conferences, along with their respective odds to be conference champs:

American: Houston (51%)ACC: North Carolina (35%)Big 12: Baylor (27%)Big East: Villanova (27%)Big Ten: Indiana (21%)Pac-12: Arizona (30%)SEC: Kentucky (27%)

Some observations here:

Last season, in what looked like a balanced year in the preseason, you would have expected only 2.01 of our seven projected major conference champs to actually win the conference. Two did (Houston and Duke). A third (Villanova) likely would have won its conference, if not for some COVID-scheduling weirdness. (Providence did not make up three tough games and narrowly got the top seed based on win percentage.)Only two teams are repeating as our preseason favorites to win their respective conferences: Houston and Villanova. Villanova is not the Big East favorite according to the polls, but it is in our rankings.Indiana is our favorite in the Big Ten, but at 21 percent, it has the shortest odds of any of these projected conference winners.North Carolina, which made a run to the national title game last year, will try to win its first outright ACC title since 2017.Arizona, which wasn’t our preseason favorite last year but surged to the title in head coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season, is our Pac-12 favorite this time around.

Biggest Mid-Major Conference Favorites

Outside the major conferences, six schools have a 49 percent or better chance of winning their regular-season conference title.

Gonzaga (83% to win West Coast)Colgate (62% to win Patriot)Vermont (58% to win America East)Norfolk State (57% to win MEAC)Toledo (50% to win MAC)Dayton (49% to win Atlantic 10)

For the purposes of this exercise, we call the West Coast Conference a mid-major, though Gonzaga is a major program and yet again is a prohibitive favorite in the WCC.

Colgate, for the second year in a row, has our second-highest regular-season conference champion odds overall, trailing only Gonzaga.

Last year, we had eight projected conference champs with at least a 49% chance of winning the regular-season title, so the mid-majors are a little more balanced this year.

2022-23 College Basketball Projected Conference Standings

For a lot more info on any team, click their name in the associated conference table below to view their season projections page. Once there, be sure to also check out the team Bracketology link at the top of the page.

Other than that, just keep in mind the following two notes:

Scheduled games only. Our preseason win-loss record projections only account for already scheduled games, so they will be missing some early-season tournament games where opponents have yet to be determined.Coronavirus impact on schedules. Team schedules hopefully will not change as frequently as they did in the past few seasons, but some games still might be canceled or postponed because of COVID-19. So, some of the win-loss records below are bound to be wrong in terms of number of actual games played. We will not be updating this post in the future; see our college basketball projections page for the latest projections we have.Daily variance. Even before the season starts, the numbers here may differ slightly from those on the college basketball projections pages on TeamRankings and BetIQ. That isn’t us adjusting numbers behind the scenes; it’s just the result of variance in our season simulations which rerun daily, even in the preseason.

Table Key

CONFERENCE: Projected conference wins and losses during the regular season.OVERALL: Projected total wins and losses during the regular season.CONFERENCE ODDS: Odds to win the regular season conference title (Reg), odds to win the conference tournament (Tourn)

2022-23 ACC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
N Carolina	15.1	4.9	22.8	6.2	35.3%	29.0%
Duke	13.7	6.3	21.2	7.8	18.9%	18.0%
Virginia	13.2	6.8	20.4	8.6	15.5%	15.0%
Miami (FL)	12.2	7.8	20.8	9.2	8.2%	9.3%
VA Tech	11.8	8.2	19.4	9.6	7.9%	8.8%
Florida St	11.1	8.9	18.0	11.0	4.7%	5.5%
Notre Dame	10.5	9.5	19.4	11.6	3.5%	4.5%
Syracuse	9.3	10.7	16.9	13.1	1.6%	2.4%
Clemson	9.0	11.0	15.6	14.4	1.2%	1.8%
GA Tech	8.4	11.6	16.0	14.0	1.1%	1.2%
NC State	8.4	11.6	15.2	13.8	1.0%	1.7%
Wake Forest	7.9	12.1	14.4	15.6	0.6%	1.3%
Louisville	7.0	13.0	12.3	16.7	0.4%	0.7%
Boston Col	6.6	13.4	12.9	16.1	0.2%	0.6%
Pittsburgh	5.7	14.3	11.8	18.2	0.1%	0.3%

North Carolina will try to follow up on its great tournament run with an elite regular season, while Duke will try to continue to find success in its first year without Coach K. Virginia is targeted for a rebound, while Miami is also expected to contend after its Elite Eight run a year ago.

2022-23 America East Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Vermont	12.7	3.3	19.8	9.2	58.0%	52.0%
Bryant	10.1	5.9	18.0	13.0	16.0%	16.9%
Mass Lowell	9.5	6.5	18.9	12.1	12.1%	13.0%
Maryland BC	8.0	8.0	15.7	15.3	4.9%	5.9%
Albany	7.3	8.7	12.6	17.4	3.1%	4.0%
Binghamton	7.1	8.9	13.6	15.4	2.8%	3.6%
N Hampshire	6.3	9.7	12.1	16.9	1.5%	2.1%
NJIT	5.9	10.1	10.8	18.2	1.2%	1.7%
Maine	5.0	11.0	9.5	19.5	0.5%	0.8%

Vermont has won or shared the conference regular-season title for six straight years and is again the favorite in the America East Conference.

2022-23 AAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Houston	14.3	3.7	25.2	5.8	51.3%	41.4%
Memphis	12.5	5.5	19.8	9.2	20.0%	21.4%
Cincinnati	12.1	5.9	21.2	7.8	16.1%	17.0%
Tulane	9.6	8.4	17.9	10.1	4.5%	6.3%
Temple	8.8	9.2	15.7	14.3	2.6%	4.0%
Wichita St	8.5	9.5	15.5	13.5	2.0%	3.1%
Central FL	8.1	9.9	14.4	14.6	1.3%	2.4%
S Methodist	8.0	10.0	14.4	14.6	1.5%	2.4%
S Florida	6.6	11.4	14.2	15.8	0.4%	1.0%
Tulsa	6.5	11.5	11.7	15.3	0.3%	0.8%
E Carolina	3.9	14.1	9.6	19.4	0.0%	0.1%

Houston has emerged as a national power and the class of the American. The conference had somewhat of a down year last season overall, as Memphis and Houston were the only NCAA tournament teams. Cincinnati looks like the most likely candidate to increase the American tourney teams this year.

With Houston and Cincy both headed to the Big 12 next season (as well as UCF), the rest of the AAC may be rooting for Memphis to be tops in this trio.

2022-23 Atlantic 10 Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Dayton	14.3	3.7	23.6	5.4	48.5%	39.2%
Saint Louis	12.2	5.8	20.9	9.1	17.4%	17.9%
Loyola-Chi	11.1	6.9	18.7	9.3	9.1%	10.7%
Richmond	11.0	7.0	19.5	10.5	7.7%	8.3%
VCU	9.6	8.4	18.1	11.9	4.1%	5.8%
Davidson	9.6	8.4	16.4	11.6	4.1%	5.3%
Geo Mason	9.2	8.8	16.1	12.9	2.4%	3.5%
St Bonavent	8.8	9.2	17.0	14.0	1.9%	2.5%
La Salle	8.3	9.7	15.0	15.0	1.2%	1.8%
U Mass	8.1	9.9	13.7	14.3	1.6%	1.7%
Rhode Island	7.7	10.3	14.2	14.8	1.0%	1.4%
Duquesne	7.2	10.8	14.2	16.8	0.5%	0.8%
St Josephs	6.4	11.6	12.1	16.9	0.4%	0.5%
Fordham	5.9	12.1	14.3	16.7	0.2%	0.4%
Geo Wshgtn	5.6	12.4	12.4	16.6	0.1%	0.3%

Loyola-Chicago joins the Atlantic-10 this year, competing with other Catholic schools in what should be a natural geographic fit. But Dayton is the favorite to start the year, while Saint Louis also has hopes of breaking through for a NCAA tournament bid.

2022-23 ASUN Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Liberty	13.6	4.4	22.9	7.1	39.4%	36.8%
Jacksonville	11.1	6.9	17.1	11.9	13.5%	12.8%
Fla Gulf Cst	10.4	7.6	15.2	13.8	7.9%	8.5%
Jksnville St	10.0	8.0	17.5	13.5	7.8%	8.3%
N Florida	10.0	8.0	16.6	14.4	7.5%	7.4%
Lipscomb	9.3	8.7	16.0	15.0	5.5%	5.4%
Bellarmine	9.3	8.7	15.0	16.0	4.8%	5.3%
Austin Peay	9.0	9.0	15.0	15.0	4.2%	4.4%
Kennesaw St	8.9	9.1	15.2	15.8	3.6%	3.9%
E Kentucky	8.3	9.7	14.4	16.6	2.4%	2.8%
Queens	8.1	9.9	14.6	15.4	2.2%	2.7%
N Alabama	6.5	11.5	12.1	18.9	0.6%	0.8%
Stetson	6.3	11.7	10.0	19.0	0.6%	0.8%
Central Ark	5.1	12.9	9.2	21.8	0.1%	0.2%

New member Jacksonville State ended Liberty’s run atop the conference last season, but the Flames are our preseason favorite, just ahead of Jacksonville (not to be confused with Jacksonville State).

2022-23 Big 12 Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Baylor	11.7	6.3	21.7	8.3	26.6%	22.5%
Texas	10.8	7.2	21.3	9.7	17.4%	16.0%
Kansas	10.6	7.4	18.9	10.1	15.5%	14.7%
TX Christian	10.1	7.9	20.8	9.2	11.6%	12.0%
Texas Tech	10.0	8.0	19.6	9.4	12.0%	12.3%
Oklahoma St	8.8	9.2	18.1	11.9	5.8%	7.2%
Oklahoma	8.7	9.3	16.8	12.2	5.8%	7.0%
Iowa State	7.7	10.3	16.3	12.7	3.5%	4.8%
W Virginia	6.2	11.8	13.5	15.5	1.0%	2.1%
Kansas St	5.5	12.5	13.6	15.4	0.7%	1.4%

The top of the Big 12 again looks tight, with five teams projected for between 10.0 and 11.7 wins and at least a 10% chance to win the conference title.

2022-23 Big East Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Villanova	13.4	6.6	20.5	8.5	26.6%	22.4%
Xavier	13.1	6.9	20.3	8.7	22.8%	20.2%
Creighton	12.7	7.3	19.5	9.5	18.0%	17.1%
Connecticut	11.6	8.4	18.7	10.3	12.0%	12.0%
Seton Hall	10.7	9.3	17.1	11.9	7.8%	8.9%
St Johns	10.1	9.9	18.1	11.9	5.3%	6.7%
Marquette	8.8	11.2	15.4	14.6	2.7%	4.0%
DePaul	8.4	11.6	15.0	15.0	1.9%	3.3%
Providence	8.1	11.9	15.6	14.4	1.8%	2.9%
Butler	7.2	12.8	13.1	15.9	0.8%	1.7%
Georgetown	5.9	14.1	12.3	17.7	0.3%	0.9%

Last year’s regular-season champ, Providence, is projected for ninth. Creighton is the highest-ranked team in the polls, while we have Villanova and Xavier projected as the top two teams. Connecticut is also in the mix for the title.

2022-23 Big Sky Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Montana St	11.7	6.3	18.9	12.1	22.4%	19.9%
E Washingtn	11.5	6.5	19.0	13.0	22.5%	19.8%
Montana	10.8	7.2	16.9	13.1	14.7%	14.7%
Weber State	10.7	7.3	16.7	14.3	14.9%	14.5%
N Colorado	10.1	7.9	15.4	14.6	11.0%	11.5%
Sac State	9.0	9.0	14.5	15.5	6.1%	7.3%
Portland St	8.9	9.1	13.6	15.4	5.4%	7.1%
N Arizona	7.4	10.6	11.9	19.1	2.3%	3.5%
Idaho State	5.9	12.1	11.1	19.9	0.6%	1.5%
Idaho	4.0	14.0	9.1	21.9	0.1%	0.3%

We have a virtual tie projected atop the Big Sky standings, with last year’s champ Montana State, and the team that won the auto bid two years ago, Eastern Washington.

2022-23 Big South Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Longwood	11.6	6.4	20.1	10.9	23.1%	20.4%
NC-Asheville	11.5	6.5	19.1	11.9	22.6%	20.2%
Winthrop	11.3	6.7	17.3	12.7	19.5%	18.1%
Gard-Webb	10.4	7.6	16.5	13.5	13.6%	13.6%
Campbell	9.4	8.6	16.0	14.0	8.8%	9.4%
High Point	8.2	9.8	13.7	15.3	3.9%	5.3%
Radford	8.0	10.0	13.7	17.3	3.8%	5.1%
Presbyterian	7.6	10.4	13.1	16.9	2.8%	4.3%
SC Upstate	6.6	11.4	10.9	18.1	1.3%	2.5%
Charl South	5.4	12.6	9.3	19.7	0.7%	1.2%

Longwood emerged last year in a surprise run to knock Winthrop off the top spot. We project a three-way battle involving those two and UNC-Asheville this season.

2022-23 Big Ten Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Indiana	13.0	7.0	21.7	9.3	21.2%	19.2%
Iowa	12.0	8.0	20.0	10.0	13.0%	11.7%
Purdue	11.8	8.2	19.2	9.8	12.2%	10.7%
Michigan St	11.7	8.3	17.6	11.4	11.4%	11.7%
Illinois	11.3	8.7	19.2	10.8	8.5%	8.1%
Maryland	11.2	8.8	19.0	11.0	8.1%	7.9%
Michigan	11.2	8.8	18.8	11.2	7.7%	8.4%
Rutgers	10.3	9.7	19.3	11.7	5.4%	6.2%
Ohio State	10.1	9.9	16.9	12.1	5.0%	6.2%
Wisconsin	9.5	10.5	16.1	12.9	3.6%	3.9%
Penn State	8.7	11.3	15.9	13.1	2.5%	3.2%
Northwestern	7.0	13.0	14.6	15.4	0.7%	1.4%
Minnesota	6.1	13.9	13.3	16.7	0.4%	0.7%
Nebraska	6.1	13.9	11.3	17.7	0.4%	0.7%

Last year’s co-champ in the regular season, Wisconsin, is projected to finish just under .500 in conference play. (We checked, and it appears Brad Davison has finally used up his eight years of eligibility.)

The Big Ten looks like one of the deepest conferences this year, though it remains to be seen whether a true national title contender can emerge. We project Indiana at the top, which would be a big leap since the program hasn’t posted a winning conference record since it last won the Big Ten in 2016.

2022-23 Big West Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
UCSB	14.3	5.7	22.7	8.3	35.1%	29.3%
UC Irvine	13.3	6.7	19.5	11.5	24.4%	21.8%
Hawaii	12.2	7.8	18.0	10.0	14.4%	14.7%
UC Riverside	10.8	9.2	16.0	16.0	7.1%	9.0%
Lg Beach St	10.4	9.6	15.6	14.4	6.2%	7.9%
CS Fullerton	9.7	10.3	15.9	16.1	4.3%	6.1%
UC Davis	9.5	10.5	16.0	16.0	4.2%	5.7%
UC San Diego	8.3	11.7	13.7	18.3	1.9%	0.0%
Cal Poly	7.6	12.4	12.7	19.3	1.2%	2.4%
CS Bakersfld	7.2	12.8	12.2	18.8	0.9%	1.9%
Cal St Nrdge	6.6	13.4	11.1	18.9	0.4%	1.4%

Long Beach State and Cal State-Fullerton were the top two in the Big West last year, but we project them both to be more middle-of-the-pack this season. We have UCSB and UC-Irvine at the top.

2022-23 CAA Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Towson	13.3	4.7	21.8	9.2	35.6%	30.2%
Hofstra	11.9	6.1	17.8	12.2	19.2%	17.8%
Col Charlestn	10.8	7.2	17.0	12.0	11.7%	11.8%
NC-Wilmgton	10.8	7.2	16.4	12.6	10.4%	9.8%
Delaware	10.3	7.7	17.7	13.3	8.6%	10.1%
Northeastrn	9.5	8.5	13.9	14.1	5.0%	6.5%
Drexel	8.8	9.2	14.4	14.6	3.2%	4.3%
Stony Brook	8.3	9.7	14.2	16.8	2.6%	3.1%
Monmouth	7.6	10.4	11.1	19.9	1.4%	2.2%
NC A&T	7.2	10.8	12.1	17.9	1.0%	1.6%
Hampton	6.2	11.8	10.8	20.2	0.5%	0.8%
Elon	6.1	11.9	11.2	18.8	0.5%	0.9%
Wm & Mary	6.1	11.9	11.2	19.8	0.4%	0.8%

Towson was the class of the CAA last year in the regular season, but it got knocked off in the CAA semifinals by Delaware. We’ve got Towson as the favorite this year. It will try to break through and get its first-ever bid to the NCAA tournament.

2022-23 CUSA Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
North Texas	15.1	4.9	21.3	6.7	37.6%	31.3%
UAB	14.6	5.4	22.5	7.5	30.7%	27.2%
W Kentucky	12.0	8.0	18.5	10.5	9.7%	10.8%
Fla Atlantic	11.7	8.3	19.4	11.6	8.3%	9.9%
LA Tech	11.5	8.5	19.1	11.9	7.7%	9.2%
Middle Tenn	10.0	10.0	16.4	14.6	3.4%	5.0%
Charlotte	8.9	11.1	14.4	14.6	1.5%	3.0%
TX El Paso	7.4	12.6	13.3	16.7	0.5%	1.4%
Rice	6.9	13.1	14.1	16.9	0.2%	1.0%
Florida Intl	6.7	13.3	13.7	17.3	0.4%	1.0%
TX-San Ant	5.0	15.0	11.0	20.0	0.1%	0.3%

The last two teams to represent Conference USA in the NCAA tournament, UAB and North Texas, are our favorites to win the conference title. No other team is above 10%.

2022-23 Horizon League Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
IPFW	13.0	7.0	19.3	10.7	20.1%	18.6%
N Kentucky	12.9	7.1	18.1	10.9	20.3%	18.9%
Wright State	12.6	7.4	18.4	12.6	18.1%	16.7%
Oakland	12.2	7.8	15.8	13.2	14.8%	14.4%
Youngs St	12.1	7.9	18.9	12.1	13.6%	13.6%
Detroit	10.1	9.9	13.9	17.1	4.6%	5.8%
Cleveland St	9.6	10.4	14.9	16.1	3.9%	4.7%
WI-Milwkee	8.8	11.2	14.4	16.6	2.4%	3.4%
Rob Morris	8.4	11.6	13.1	17.9	1.8%	2.8%
WI-Grn Bay	6.5	13.5	8.6	21.4	0.5%	0.9%
IUPUI	3.7	16.3	7.5	23.5	0.0%	0.1%

The Horizon League has five teams projected within one win of each other at the top. Purdue-Fort Wayne is narrowly projected above the others, and it would make its first NCAA tournament appearance by winning the auto-bid.

2022-23 Independents Basketball Projections

	Overall
Team	W	L
Hartford	13.3	14.7
Chicago St	10.0	21.0

There are two Independents this year that are not affiliated with any conference. That’s a change from last season, and it’s the first time there have been any since the 2014-15 season. We do not project either to be in contention for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

2022-23 Ivy League Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Yale	9.0	5.0	16.6	10.4	26.7%	22.3%
U Penn	8.8	5.2	15.9	12.1	24.3%	20.6%
Princeton	8.5	5.5	16.8	9.2	20.0%	27.5%
Harvard	7.1	6.9	14.1	12.9	9.0%	8.9%
Brown	7.0	7.0	13.1	13.9	8.0%	7.9%
Cornell	6.8	7.2	13.8	13.2	7.4%	7.7%
Dartmouth	6.1	7.9	14.5	14.5	4.4%	4.9%
Columbia	2.7	11.3	9.1	19.9	0.2%	0.2%

The Ivy League returned a year ago after sitting out the 2020-21 season. We see the three top contenders this year as the same three teams that finished with a winning record in the Ivy League last year.

2022-23 MAAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Iona	13.7	6.3	17.5	11.5	34.8%	26.8%
St Peters	11.5	8.5	16.8	12.2	13.8%	13.2%
Rider	10.9	9.1	15.7	13.3	10.6%	11.0%
Fairfield	10.4	9.6	15.6	15.4	8.7%	9.0%
Quinnipiac	10.1	9.9	15.8	15.2	7.1%	8.1%
Niagara	9.8	10.2	14.7	14.3	6.3%	7.3%
Mt St Marys	9.7	10.3	15.0	16.0	5.6%	7.0%
Siena	9.4	10.6	12.9	16.1	5.4%	6.3%
Canisius	8.8	11.2	12.1	16.9	3.6%	4.8%
Manhattan	8.0	12.0	11.8	16.2	2.2%	3.4%
Marist	7.8	12.2	12.4	16.6	2.0%	3.0%

Rick Pitino’s Iona squad is again the regular-season favorite, followed by last year’s Cinderella team of the NCAA tournament, Saint Peter’s.

2022-23 MAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Toledo	14.5	3.5	21.3	6.7	49.9%	39.5%
Akron	12.3	5.7	20.0	9.0	19.4%	20.5%
Kent State	12.0	6.0	19.4	10.6	16.5%	15.9%
Ohio	10.1	7.9	17.2	13.8	4.2%	6.5%
Buffalo	9.5	8.5	13.4	14.6	4.0%	6.2%
Ball State	8.6	9.4	15.3	13.7	2.2%	3.7%
W Michigan	7.5	10.5	11.7	17.3	0.8%	1.7%
Miami (OH)	7.5	10.5	12.3	16.7	0.9%	1.8%
Bowling Grn	7.3	10.8	13.7	17.3	1.0%	1.7%
N Illinois	6.7	11.3	11.3	18.7	0.6%	1.0%
E Michigan	6.0	12.0	9.8	20.2	0.2%	0.8%
Central Mich	5.9	12.1	10.7	19.3	0.3%	0.6%

Toledo has unfinished business in the MAC, as a 32-7 conference record and two regular-season titles in two years has resulted in no NCAA appearances. We have the Rockets as one of the larger favorites among the mid-majors to repeat this season, with nearly a 50% chance of getting the regular-season title for a third year in a row.

2022-23 MEAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Norfolk St	11.1	2.9	21.1	8.9	57.3%	47.4%
Howard	8.5	5.5	15.2	13.8	13.6%	15.7%
Morgan St	7.3	6.7	14.2	14.8	8.4%	8.4%
Coppin State	7.2	6.8	10.9	20.1	7.2%	9.0%
NC Central	7.2	6.8	13.4	14.6	6.4%	8.5%
Maryland ES	7.1	6.9	13.7	15.3	6.4%	8.5%
S Car State	4.2	9.8	6.5	23.5	0.6%	1.7%
Delaware St	3.4	10.6	7.0	22.0	0.2%	0.8%

Norfolk State was the clear class of the MEAC a year ago, and we do not see that changing this season.

2022-23 Mountain West Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
San Diego St	13.9	4.1	22.1	5.9	44.1%	36.1%
Utah State	12.3	5.7	21.2	7.8	21.0%	19.2%
Wyoming	10.6	7.4	18.1	9.9	9.6%	10.5%
Boise State	10.4	7.6	18.1	10.9	8.5%	9.4%
Fresno St	10.4	7.6	18.3	10.7	7.2%	7.4%
Colorado St	9.5	8.5	17.0	12.0	4.4%	5.3%
New Mexico	8.3	9.7	17.2	13.8	1.9%	2.8%
Nevada	8.1	9.9	15.0	14.0	1.6%	2.6%
UNLV	7.9	10.1	15.1	13.9	1.8%	6.4%
Air Force	3.8	14.2	11.1	19.9	0.0%	0.1%
San Jose St	3.8	14.2	8.4	20.6	0.0%	0.1%

The Mountain West had one of its best seasons in recent memory, with four teams making the NCAA tournament. Perennial power San Diego State is seen as the favorite, while Utah State, which finished under .500 in conference play a year ago after several key injuries, is expected to bounce back and contend.

2022-23 Missouri Valley Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Drake	13.5	6.5	19.9	9.1	26.4%	22.3%
Bradley	12.6	7.4	19.3	10.7	17.3%	16.4%
Belmont	12.4	7.6	18.2	10.8	15.1%	14.2%
S Illinois	11.7	8.3	18.4	11.6	11.5%	11.1%
Missouri St	10.7	9.3	15.7	13.3	6.4%	7.6%
Indiana St	10.5	9.5	17.0	12.0	5.6%	6.2%
Illinois St	10.2	9.8	16.7	12.3	5.1%	5.8%
N Iowa	10.1	9.9	15.4	14.6	5.5%	6.6%
Murray St	10.1	9.9	14.3	13.7	5.4%	6.6%
Valparaiso	8.3	11.7	14.5	16.5	1.4%	2.5%
Evansville	5.4	14.6	9.1	21.9	0.2%	0.4%
IL-Chicago	4.7	15.3	9.5	21.5	0.0%	0.2%

The Missouri Valley has had a big shakeup this offseason, as defending tournament champ Loyola-Chicago is now in the Atlantic-10. The two top teams from the Ohio Valley, Belmont and Murray State, have joined the conference, along with Illinois-Chicago (from the Horizon).

2022-23 NEC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Wagner	10.7	5.3	16.6	10.4	33.1%	31.1%
Merrimack	9.7	6.3	16.2	14.8	20.3%	20.1%
LIU	8.8	7.2	12.4	14.6	12.5%	12.9%
St Fran (PA)	8.5	7.5	14.0	15.0	10.8%	11.6%
Sacred Hrt	8.3	7.7	14.7	16.3	9.7%	10.6%
St Fran (NY)	7.5	8.5	13.2	15.8	6.4%	7.4%
Central Conn	6.2	9.8	10.1	20.9	2.5%	3.3%
F Dickinson	6.1	9.9	11.1	19.9	2.4%	3.0%
Stonehill	6.0	10.0	9.7	21.3	2.4%	0.0%

Bryant won the NEC title a year ago, but it left for the America East Conference this offseason. That leaves Wagner as the favorite, though you should also monitor Merrimack.

2022-23 Ohio Valley Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Morehead St	12.6	5.4	20.2	10.8	35.2%	30.2%
TN Martin	10.5	7.5	18.3	12.7	13.7%	14.4%
TN State	10.4	7.6	18.4	11.6	13.5%	13.7%
S Indiana	9.7	8.3	16.1	14.9	9.8%	10.5%
SIU Edward	9.3	8.7	15.3	15.7	7.9%	8.5%
AR Lit Rock	9.1	8.9	14.5	16.5	7.3%	8.1%
TN Tech	9.1	8.9	15.1	15.9	6.6%	7.5%
SE Missouri	8.3	9.7	12.9	18.1	4.6%	5.0%
Lindenwood	5.9	12.1	11.0	20.0	0.8%	1.3%
E Illinois	5.2	12.8	9.5	21.5	0.5%	0.7%

The Ohio Valley Conference got a big shakeup when both Belmont and Murray State left for the Missouri Valley. The last time a school other than those two won the regular-season title outright was Tennessee-Martin back in 2008-09. With both gone, Morehead State is now the favorite to win the conference this year.

2022-23 Pac-12 Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Arizona	14.4	5.6	21.8	7.2	29.8%	24.6%
UCLA	13.8	6.2	22.0	8.0	24.1%	22.8%
Oregon	12.6	7.4	19.8	9.2	14.0%	13.4%
Stanford	11.9	8.1	18.2	10.8	9.1%	9.3%
USC	11.9	8.1	18.9	10.1	9.1%	9.7%
Colorado	11.0	9.0	17.9	11.1	5.7%	6.8%
Arizona St	10.1	9.9	17.3	12.7	3.9%	5.4%
Wash State	9.4	10.6	15.6	13.4	2.3%	3.9%
Utah	8.5	11.5	15.6	14.4	1.3%	2.3%
Washington	7.7	12.3	14.1	15.9	0.8%	1.5%
California	5.3	14.7	10.4	19.6	0.1%	0.2%
Oregon St	3.4	16.6	8.4	20.6	0.0%	0.1%

Arizona was a revelation last year in head coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season with the program, and it is the favorite just ahead of UCLA. Oregon will look to rebound from a disappointing season, while Stanford could end a dry run. The Cardinal have only made one NCAA tournament appearance in the last 15 years.

2022-23 Patriot League Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Colgate	14.4	3.6	22.6	8.4	61.6%	54.1%
Boston U	10.3	7.7	16.8	14.2	9.9%	10.6%
Navy	10.2	7.8	15.7	14.3	8.9%	10.1%
Loyola-MD	9.4	8.6	15.2	14.8	5.5%	6.8%
Army	9.1	8.9	16.0	14.0	5.1%	6.3%
Lehigh	7.9	10.1	12.8	16.2	2.1%	3.0%
American	7.8	10.2	12.0	17.0	2.2%	2.9%
Bucknell	7.8	10.2	12.5	17.5	2.5%	3.0%
Lafayette	7.3	10.7	10.6	20.4	1.7%	2.3%
Holy Cross	5.9	12.1	11.4	19.6	0.7%	0.9%

Colgate has been the class of the Patriot League for the last four years, and we see that staying the same this season.

2022-23 SEC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Kentucky	12.6	5.4	23.4	7.6	26.5%	22.6%
Tennessee	12.5	5.5	21.9	7.1	23.1%	20.4%
Auburn	11.0	7.0	20.6	9.4	11.4%	11.5%
Alabama	10.6	7.4	18.3	10.7	8.8%	9.3%
Arkansas	10.5	7.5	19.5	9.5	9.2%	10.2%
Florida	10.3	7.7	18.7	10.3	7.3%	8.0%
Mississippi	9.2	8.8	17.4	11.6	3.7%	3.9%
LSU	8.7	9.3	18.2	10.8	3.3%	4.1%
Texas A&M	8.7	9.3	17.3	11.7	3.0%	3.9%
Miss State	7.7	10.3	17.0	13.0	1.5%	2.1%
Missouri	7.6	10.4	17.6	13.4	1.4%	2.1%
Vanderbilt	6.8	11.2	15.4	14.6	0.7%	1.3%
S Carolina	4.9	13.1	11.9	17.1	0.1%	0.2%
Georgia	4.9	13.1	13.2	16.8	0.1%	0.2%

It looks like a Bourbon Country battle atop the SEC between Kentucky and Tennessee, with Auburn hoping to reload after last year’s regular-season title. Six of the 14 teams in the SEC have new head coaches this year, so there is plenty of potential for surprises with new blood in the league.

2022-23 Southern Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Furman	13.7	4.3	22.4	6.6	45.4%	36.5%
Chattanooga	11.6	6.4	20.3	10.7	17.4%	17.6%
NC-Grnsboro	11.5	6.5	19.6	11.4	16.7%	16.8%
Samford	9.7	8.3	18.2	12.8	6.6%	8.4%
Wofford	9.6	8.4	17.2	13.8	6.5%	8.1%
Mercer	8.7	9.3	15.9	15.1	4.0%	5.6%
E Tenn St	7.9	10.1	14.7	15.3	2.1%	3.6%
VA Military	6.1	11.9	13.1	17.9	0.6%	1.4%
Citadel	5.6	12.4	11.5	19.5	0.4%	1.0%
W Carolina	5.5	12.5	12.3	18.7	0.3%	1.0%

Chattanooga took the league title a year ago, but Furman, the most consistent program in recent years, is favored this year. Despite their steady run near the top of the Southern Conference standings since 2016, the Paladins have zero NCAA appearances to show for it.

2022-23 Southland Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Nicholls St	13.3	4.7	17.3	10.7	43.0%	34.5%
TX A&M-CC	12.0	6.0	19.9	11.1	25.2%	22.7%
New Orleans	10.0	8.0	14.9	14.1	9.4%	10.7%
SE Louisiana	8.8	9.2	13.7	17.3	4.9%	6.8%
TX A&M-Com	8.7	9.3	12.5	18.5	4.3%	6.2%
NW State	8.6	9.4	12.6	18.4	4.1%	6.0%
McNeese St	8.3	9.7	12.3	18.7	4.3%	5.3%
Hsn Christian	7.7	10.3	13.2	17.8	2.8%	4.1%
Lamar	6.4	11.6	11.9	19.1	1.2%	2.1%
Incar Word	6.0	12.0	11.1	19.9	0.7%	1.6%

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi made an underdog run to the automatic bid a year ago, and it is expected to carry that momentum into this year. But last year’s top seed, Nicholls State, is still projected as the favorite.

2022-23 Summit League Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
S Dakota St	14.3	3.7	21.8	9.2	47.2%	39.9%
Oral Roberts	13.3	4.7	20.9	9.1	30.9%	28.0%
South Dakota	11.6	6.4	17.5	11.5	12.5%	14.7%
N Dakota St	9.8	8.2	14.9	15.1	5.0%	7.1%
Denver	7.9	10.1	15.1	15.9	1.5%	2.9%
UMKC	7.4	10.6	12.1	16.9	0.9%	2.2%
St. Thomas (MN)	7.3	10.7	13.5	17.5	0.8%	2.1%
W Illinois	7.1	10.9	10.9	16.1	0.7%	1.8%
Neb Omaha	5.7	12.3	8.3	21.7	0.2%	0.8%
North Dakota	5.6	12.4	10.5	20.5	0.2%	0.7%

South Dakota State is again the projected favorite, while Oral Roberts, the Cinderella story in the NCAA tournament two seasons ago, is also in contention.

2022-23 Sun Belt Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
S Alabama	10.9	7.1	18.2	12.8	14.9%	12.2%
Marshall	10.5	7.5	19.0	12.0	12.1%	12.1%
Texas State	10.5	7.5	18.4	11.6	12.2%	10.5%
James Mad	10.4	7.6	17.8	12.2	12.3%	12.2%
LA Lafayette	10.2	7.8	16.7	12.3	10.6%	9.5%
Coastal Car	9.3	8.7	16.9	13.1	7.5%	7.9%
Georgia St	9.2	8.8	16.8	13.2	6.9%	7.5%
App State	9.2	8.8	17.1	13.9	6.7%	7.3%
Old Dominion	8.8	9.2	14.6	13.4	5.4%	6.6%
GA Southern	8.6	9.4	17.1	13.9	4.9%	5.7%
Troy	8.0	10.0	16.0	16.0	2.9%	3.4%
Arkansas St	7.2	10.8	15.5	15.5	1.6%	2.1%
LA Monroe	7.0	11.0	13.2	16.8	1.5%	2.0%
S Mississippi	6.1	11.9	12.6	17.4	0.6%	1.1%

The Sun Belt expanded to 14 teams this season and is as balanced as any league this year. Two of the newcomers, Marshall and James Madison, are among the leading contenders for the regular-season title. Georgia State, which won the conference tournament a year ago, is projected in the middle of the pack. But in this league, anything is possible.

2022-23 SWAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Southern	12.2	5.8	16.9	13.1	26.9%	22.6%
TX Southern	12.0	6.0	16.7	14.3	22.5%	19.8%
Alabama St	11.3	6.7	15.9	15.1	16.2%	14.3%
Prairie View	10.4	7.6	15.3	15.7	9.5%	10.2%
Alcorn State	9.7	8.3	11.7	19.3	7.1%	7.5%
Beth-Cook	9.1	8.9	15.1	15.9	4.7%	7.2%
Grambling St	9.1	8.9	13.8	17.2	5.5%	7.1%
Jackson St	8.3	9.7	9.5	21.5	2.7%	3.6%
Alab A&M	8.3	9.7	12.5	17.5	3.0%	4.0%
Florida A&M	6.9	11.1	7.3	19.7	1.1%	1.9%
Ark Pine Bl	6.7	11.3	11.2	19.8	0.8%	1.6%
Miss Val St	4.0	14.0	4.8	27.2	0.1%	0.2%

Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M have dominated the conference in terms of NCAA appearances, but we project Southern, the last school to reach the tournament besides those two back in 2016, as the favorite this year.

2022-23 WAC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Grd Canyon	12.5	5.5	21.2	8.8	29.4%	27.3%
Utah Val St	10.9	7.1	17.9	12.1	13.5%	13.2%
Abl Christian	10.2	7.8	19.5	11.5	9.8%	11.3%
Seattle	10.2	7.8	17.4	11.6	9.5%	10.3%
Sam Hous St	9.8	8.2	16.5	13.5	7.3%	7.4%
Ste F Austin	9.6	8.4	17.9	13.1	6.8%	7.6%
Cal Baptist	9.5	8.5	17.3	12.7	7.1%	8.0%
N Mex State	9.3	8.7	14.9	14.1	6.3%	7.6%
S Utah	9.1	8.9	15.7	13.3	5.5%	6.1%
Tarleton State	8.5	9.5	14.2	14.8	3.4%	0.0%
TX-Arlington	6.3	11.7	10.9	18.1	0.7%	0.9%
Utah Tech	6.0	12.0	12.6	18.4	0.7%	0.0%
TX-Pan Am	4.9	13.1	11.7	19.3	0.1%	0.3%

New Mexico State has dominated the WAC recently, representing the conference in eight of the last 10 NCAA tournaments. But that could be shifting as the conference has expanded and added several quality schools. We project New Mexico State to finish in the middle of the pack, while Grand Canyon and Utah Valley State are the favorites.

Note: Utah Tech is the school formerly known as Dixie State, which has been in the conference since the 2020-21 season but is competing this year under the new school name.

2022-23 WCC Basketball Projected Standings

	Conference		Overall		Conference Odds
Team	W	L	W	L	Reg	Tourn
Gonzaga	14.6	1.4	25.9	3.1	83.2%	71.8%
BYU	10.8	5.2	21.0	8.0	8.1%	11.6%
St Marys	10.1	5.9	19.0	10.0	5.2%	8.6%
San Francisco	9.0	7.0	18.6	10.4	2.3%	4.5%
San Diego	7.5	8.5	16.1	12.9	0.4%	1.0%
Santa Clara	7.2	8.8	16.2	13.8	0.6%	1.4%
Portland	6.2	9.8	14.4	14.6	0.1%	0.5%
Loyola Mymt	6.1	9.9	13.4	15.6	0.2%	0.5%
Pepperdine	4.6	11.4	11.4	17.6	0.0%	0.1%
Pacific	3.9	12.1	12.2	18.8	0.0%	0.0%

The WCC looks a lot like it has in recent years, with Gonzaga as the prohibitive favorite, BYU and St. Mary’s in contention, and last year’s emerging team, San Francisco, in fourth, but with a new head coach in Chris Gerlufsen.

Get Our Latest College Basketball Projections

Again, once the season begins and actual game results are coming in, you can find our most recent season projections (updated daily) on the college basketball projected standings page on TeamRankings, and also in a big sortable table on the college basketball predictions page on BetIQ.