Three NFL Week 8 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 8 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 8 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

October 26, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

The return of peak Saquon Barkley has been one of the best stories of 2022 (Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when it turns into a winning bet.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 8 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

Golf Pool Picks

Get an edge in your One And Done and Majors pools

Learn MoreGet Picks Now

Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units2022 Season: 10-11 for +8.1 units

We’re officially in a slump after a white-hot start to the season, but that’s the nature of picking upsets. A few big hits and good runs can drive profits, but you still lose more games than you win over the long run.

Last week’s results:

Indianapolis played poorly for the second time this year against Tennessee, losing 19-10 thanks to three turnovers.San Francisco was within one point at the half, but the Chiefs offense exploded in the second half for a 44-23 win.Cleveland was the closest call, holding Baltimore to only 254 total yards, but a few costly penalties pushed back a game-tying field-goal attempt that was blocked to keep it 23-20.

A few more tough breaks there, especially since the 49ers moved to a pick’em in the betting markets by kickoff time and we had closing-line value on two of the three games. Such is the nature of the beast.

A full history of upset picks we’ve made so far in 2022 appears at the end of this article.

Week 8 NFL Upset Picks

Carolina Panthers (at Atlanta Falcons)

Moneyline: +182Point Spread: +4.0

This is a playable moneyline and spread pick, according to our models for Week 8.

The Falcons are currently tied for first in the NFC South at 3-4, and the Panthers are just one game back at 2-5 after beating Tampa Bay last week. In other words, the NFC South is not good.

We’ll play on that chaos continuing, as the favored Atlanta Falcons have a lot of issues for a team laying more than a field goal.

The Falcons are near the bottom of the NFL in both yards gained and allowed, and they have been outgained by 688 yards on the season. Their pass defense is also dead last in sacks and pressure rate. Teams are throwing on Atlanta at a high rate because of that lack of pressure, resulting in the NFL’s third-worst net yards per pass attempt allowed.

Atlanta’s offense looked somewhat exciting to start the season, but it has slowed down with RB Cordarrelle Patterson on IR with a knee injury. The Falcons have averaged 5.8 fewer points and 94.3 fewer yards per game on offense without him. Atlanta also looks unwilling or unable to pass the ball, as it only had 13 pass attempts last week despite trailing big against Cincinnati all game.

Meanwhile, Carolina is coming off its best offensive performance of the season in its huge upset win over Tampa Bay. QB P.J. Walker averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt in his second start in place of Baker Mayfield, even though the Panthers traded away star RB Christian McCaffrey last week.

Both of these teams are near the bottom of the NFL right now, but there should be some value in taking the underdog in a matchup where the favorite has this many issues.

New York Giants (at Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +135Point Spread: +3.0

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models, as well as a playable spread pick.

Fine. I guess we’ll pick the 6-1 team as an underdog. The Giants are not a flashy team, and they appear underrated right now, though they are playing one of the league’s other surprise teams in Seattle.

The Giants do some things that our models are picking up as underrated traits, including being able to run the ball with both RB Saquon Barkley and QB Daniel Jones, and controlling the ball and time of possession in the second half of games. Seattle also has given up chunks of yards, which should give the Giants a chance to use the same formula that has gotten them to this point.

New York does rank poorly in rushing yards allowed, but that is in part a function of facing a few running quarterback teams (Baltimore and Chicago) and high-volume rushing attacks (Tennessee and Dallas). The Giants don’t give up a lot of rushing touchdowns, though.

We have been higher than the market on the Giants since the preseason, based on some notable factors like a new head coach and a QB returning from injury. So we’ll stick with them as they try to get their seventh win, which was their preseason win total when we made the over a futures Staff Pick back in May.

Arizona Cardinals (at Minnesota Vikings)

Moneyline: +167Point Spread: +3.5

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models.

The Vikings are off to a 5-1 start, but their last four wins have all come in close games that could have gone either way. They haven’t looked nearly as good as their record implies since their Week 1 performance against Green Bay.

One big factor our model is picking up is the high opponent yards per play that Minnesota is allowing, which could make them a vulnerable favorite against a team like Arizona. Minnesota has been outgained by nearly 300 yards through its first six games, and it ranks 31st in the NFL in net yards per pass allowed.

Meanwhile, Arizona ranks poorly in net yards per pass on offense. So far this year, QB Kyler Murray is only averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, well below his career 7.1 average. But he did get WR DeAndre Hopkins back in the last game, and he averaged more than 7.0 yards per attempt for the first time all year in the win over New Orleans.

Getting another team that has been vulnerable to the pass could allow Murray and this Arizona offense (which could also get RB James Conner back) another chance to improve.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 15 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, six picks had negative CLV.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10
7	Indianapolis	Tennessee	125	120	Yes	L, 19-10
7	San Francisco	Kansas City	131	-103	Yes	L, 44-23
7	Cleveland	Baltimore	230	240	No	L, 23-20

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 8 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for NFL Week 8 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Golf Pool Picks

Get an edge in your One And Done and Majors pools

Learn MoreGet Picks Now